”Do we know what to do? Probably yes. Will we do it? Probably not.” These were the closing words of the Tällberg Forum 2007, a realist view of our common situation with regard to climate, sustainability and the necessary transition we must all achieve. The words are also the starting point of the march towards the Tällberg Forum 2008.
These words imply that you and I have a good grasp of what the problems are and what we need to do to move towards overcoming them. We know how to be economical, to live in harmony with those clos-est to us and our community. We know how to cultivate our gardens and lands to sustain nature’s ecological balances. We know how to stay out of trouble and protect our homes and livelihoods. This knowledge has helped us humans to live by and large in a workable harmony amongst ourselves and with nature – at least until a century ago.
But the words also suggest that something has changed. That achieving this convergence of common interests today and in the future may be beyond our grasp, for at least two reasons.
Firstly, we do not have the structures for governing the commons. Our governance is built on the principle of national sovereignty, legitimizing the pursuit of a nation’s perceived interests. This principle states that those natural resources that lie within the borders of any nationstate are its own property. But a nation represents only a part of the whole of the earth, a smaller “we”. The larger “we”, the whole, has to do with the earth system, the whole; nature and humanity as a part thereof. Nature and its lifesustaining systems is not sovereign property.
Secondly, we find it difficult to care for the interests of the whole. We have become embroiled in our own special interests. We seem no longer able to exercise our practical and intuitive wisdom of how to manage our lives – “Do I know what to do? Probably yes.” One reason for this is that the process of globalization has led to an esca-lating interdependence, which puts limits on our ability to exercise our individual wisdom and common sense.
Therefore, we have to set out on a search for the common sense needed. Because the heart of the matter is survival. Our interference with nature is now happening at a speed that outstrips the evolution process, making it impossible for our relationship with nature to adapt harmoniously.
Nearing nature’s limitsThe awareness of the limits of the natural resources to satisfy human needs has grown over the last 50 years. There is among scientists acute concern over the state of critical natural systems and a number of key ecosystem services: fresh water and oceans, fish stocks and coral reefs, rain forests and tundra, glaciers and sea ice. And – on top of it all – human induced climate change.
Population growth and the dramatic development of technology, economic systems and business models have refined the speed and efficiency with which material wealth (GDP) has been depleting nature. Mankind has refined the instruments through which energy and matter is turned into wealth and livelihoods. Population is estimated to grow by another 40 to 50 percent over the next 50 years, and the global economy by 100 to 200 percent. The positive fallout is that poverty and misery could be eradicated. The negative is that the planet may not be able to sustain this level of activity.
Throughout history, mankind has successfully overcome the scarcity of specific resources. Overexploitation has been solved through substitution, emigration, technological breakthroughs or in some worst cases civilization collapse. What is new today is that the exploitation is at a planetary scale (thanks to the process of globalization), that it affects those resources that are the most basic and fundamental to human survival (e.g. water), and that it has set in motion irreversible natural processes, whose dynamics we know very little of (e.g. climate).
Disappearing groundwater will not come back. Lost aquifers are lost. Thawing permafrost will not freeze again. Collapsing icesheets will not reconstruct. Greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for centuries. Desertified land is reclaimed with enormous difficulty. Eroded soils are gone forever. These are no small matters.
The common sense that we used to apply in our own lives to reconcile and harmonize human activities must now be rediscovered and applied with unprecedented speed and efficacy.
This we have to do while continuing to apply and develop humanity’s greatest achievements: democracy, human rights and justice, to which we can add the principles of an open and democraticallygoverned market economy. Together and to date, these form the height of human civilization. Not even in the worst of crisis can we afford to turn our backs on any of these principles. History has shown us that the most horrific crises like World War II could be overcome by mobilizing a total societal effort that does not set aside democratic principles.
The time for concerted action is now. Unfortunately, our track record in this area is dismal: we have not been able to craft a single truly successful international agreement, convention, treaty or protocol in the field of the common management of natural resources. Few if any have been respected when it comes to content, timetable and results. This time, trusting the growing body of scientific knowledge and understanding of our predicament, we now have to rise to the occasion. If not us, who? If not now, when?
The question for Tällberg This systems problem is the question that the Tällberg Foundation now proposes to tackle: how can we design, govern and manage the sustainable interaction between natural systems and the system of human activity.
The Tällberg conversations have historically emphasized the absolute necessity of taking a systems approach to a complex systems problem. A reductionist, linear, compartmentalized approach has shaped the way governance and strategy is organized, but it has helped get us to today’s crisis point.
The inertia of the reductionist linear model stems from stakeholders (nationstates, corporations) who always seek solutions that satisfy their interests. In essence, the world is organized to maximize the “profits” of its parts. The affairs of mankind are far too often settled according to a principle of a balance of power between conflicting interests. The compromises reached are rarely in the interest of the whole system (economic, security, equity, energy).
Systems are not about maximization. They are about serving a purpose. A system is always more than the sum of its parts. It is simply not possible to maximize economic growth everywhere; to maximize personal wealth while at the same time safeguarding the health of natural and climate systems. However, security for everyone and equity and justice in the allocation of rights and resources, is possible while respecting the limits set by nature.
As difficult as the complexity of systemic solutions may be, they are more necessary than ever. Denying the real complexity of the issues at hand – be they mitigating climate change, achieving global equity, maintaining the provision of energy, safeguarding geopolitical security or securing economic growth – is a populist and dishonest stance. Einstein once said: “make things as simple as possible – but not simpler”.
The ambition of the Tällberg Foundation’s work – starting with the Tällberg Forum 2008 – is to transform an everdeepening understanding of complex systems into practical ideas for policy, strategy and institutional development.
This work has to begin with a profound understanding of natural systems. Humans are just a part of these, one of millions of species that evolution has produced and will continue produce. Fundamentally, the purpose of the natural system and of the process of evolution is, quite simply, to generate life – that then generates more life.
The Tällberg Foundation has together with the Stockholm Environment Institute launched a project – “Towards a Tällberg Consensus” – that connects world-class scientific expertise to the process.
Deeper insights about the systems of human activity are also necessary. For the sake of simplicity (but without oversimplifying), we have divided them into four:
- The economic system, whose pur-pose is to produce economic growth and material welfare.
- The energy production system, whose purpose is to fuel human activity since energy is a prerequisite for all human production and activity.
- Community and equity system, whose purpose is to develop political, cultural and social systems that allow for a just allocation of resources and welfare to all people and to safeguard democracy and the rule of law.
- Security systems, whose purpose is to safeguard both human security and safe relations between the humans and the rest of nature.
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